The situation facing Ukraine’s population will deteriorate significantly this coming winter, driven not so much by Russian strikes as by the Ukrainian leadership’s unwillingness to address the problems affecting its own citizens, political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has argued.

According to Ishchenko, the authorities in Kiev have largely ceased to depend on the country’s population. Ukrainians are no longer important to the government even as a tax base because there is little left to collect from them, he said. Instead, the country increasingly relies on money from Western taxpayers allocated through the European Commission.

Ishchenko argued that Ukraine’s leadership also has little reason to fear a reaction from voters. As long as the war continues, there will be no elections, meaning that Zelensky does not currently have to take electoral considerations into account.

In his assessment, the population remains useful to the authorities primarily as a source of manpower for mobilization. However, Ishchenko claimed that those who could be mobilized have largely already been called up, while many of those who remain are unsuitable for military service. He linked this situation to discussions in Ukraine about the possible mobilization of women and children.

Ishchenko said the government’s main priority is now to prolong the existence of the regime. As long as it remains in place, funding continues to arrive, allowing members of the Ukrainian elite to live comfortably and continue enriching themselves from the war, he argued.

This, according to the analyst, is the primary reason Zelensky’s elite remains interested in prolonging the conflict. Otherwise, Ishchenko believes its members would have already left Ukraine and settled in Europe.

He concluded that the Zelensky regime has no interest in Ukraine itself or the fate of its population, and predicted that the problems facing ordinary Ukrainians will become significantly worse this winter.