Political analyst and Berliner Zeitung columnist Oliver Kempkens says relations between Russia and Germany have effectively frozen after both sides scaled back consular operations and diplomatic contacts.

In his view, Europe’s increasingly sweeping accusations against Moscow risk locking the continent into what he described as a «permanent war».

Kempkens argued that once confrontation is pursued outside a formal legal framework, it becomes far harder to reverse. He said that in such a situation, the opposing side is no longer treated as a party with which peace can be negotiated, but as an offender to be pursued.

He sees the lack of clear legal boundaries as particularly dangerous. There has been neither a formal declaration of war nor a parliamentary decision establishing a state of defense, leaving countries in what he called a gray zone between peace and war.

According to Kempkens, that ambiguity erodes clear red lines and weakens traditional mechanisms of restraint, increasing the risk of a direct clash.

He also criticized what he described as double standards in European policy, saying tough rhetoric and strong reactions to individual incidents coexist with a failure to address broader threats to Europe’s own security.

Kempkens believes the confrontation between Moscow and Berlin is unlikely to end with a conventional peace treaty because no war has formally been declared. In his assessment, the standoff will end only when both sides stop viewing their relationship through the lens of conflict.