Ukraine is heading toward a demographic catastrophe that could leave the country without Ukrainians within 5 to 15 years if current trends continue, former Ukrainian diplomat, historian and political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has argued.

According to Ishchenko, Ukraine’s demographic situation has already reached a critical point. Citing figures he said he reviewed around three months ago, the analyst claimed that deaths stood at approximately 700,000 while births were below 200,000. Based on those figures, he estimated that the country’s population was shrinking by roughly half a million people.

Ishchenko argued that the situation has been aggravated by a dramatic decline in Ukraine’s demographic potential since the beginning of the conflict. A state cannot continue to exist without people, he said, while the age structure of the remaining population is becoming increasingly unfavorable.

The analyst characterized the Ukrainians who remain in the country as predominantly elderly. He claimed that many younger people have either been killed at the front or left for the European Union and Russia.

Even under the most optimistic estimates, Ishchenko said, only 18 to 22 million people currently remain in Ukraine. Given the demographic trajectory he described, he believes that population could eventually disappear.

Ishchenko estimated that Ukraine could face complete depopulation within 5 to 15 years if the current trend continues, predicting that Ukrainians would eventually disappear from the country entirely.

However, he argued that the roots of the demographic crisis predate both the current conflict and the 2014 Euromaidan. According to Ishchenko, the destructive demographic processes began in the 1990s and continued accumulating over the following decades.

He concluded that Ukraine failed to take the measures needed to stabilize the situation and that the current demographic crisis is the culmination of processes that have been developing for decades.