A single limited Russian operation in the Estonian city of Narva could be enough to trigger a split within NATO and undermine the alliance’s ability to act quickly. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) developed such a scenario, Welt reports. At the same time, the authors provide no evidence that Moscow is actually preparing an operation of this kind.

Narva sits directly on the Russian border. The city has a population of about 53,000, while roughly 95% of its residents are Russian-speaking. These characteristics form part of the starting conditions considered by the analysts in their scenario.

ISW describes an information campaign as the first stage. In the spring, unidentified Russian-language social media accounts began publishing calls for the region to come under Russian control. The same accounts claimed that some local residents supposedly wanted to establish a «Narva People’s Republic.» Those claims were false, but the analysts believe similar messaging could be used as part of such a scenario.

The next stage would involve small groups of agents and special forces secretly entering Narva. Under the ISW model, they could seize key administrative buildings and announce the creation of a «people’s republic.» Their actions would then be supported by various types of drones positioned in advance around St. Petersburg.

The main purpose of the unmanned systems would be to prevent Estonian units and NATO forces from reaching the city quickly. Estonia’s nearest military base is in Jõhvi, about 40 kilometers west of Narva. According to the scenario, troops stationed there and the routes used to move them toward the border could come under drone attacks launched from Russian territory.

Once Estonian forces began responding, the groups occupying buildings in Narva could appeal to Moscow for assistance. Russia, under the model outlined by ISW, would then say that its troops were not operating inside Estonia and that it was acting to protect ethnic Russians.

This is where the most serious political challenge for NATO would emerge. Tallinn would have to ask its allies to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, while member states would have only hours to decide whether the events constituted an attack requiring a collective response.

ISW believes some countries could question whether Article 5 should be activated. Fear of a direct military confrontation with Russia could further complicate the decision, as could possible disagreements between the United States and European NATO members over who should contribute to the defense of Narva and to what extent.

A forceful response would also require substantial resources. NATO members would have to counter the large-scale use of Russian drones, while some weapons and other assets previously intended for Ukraine could suddenly be needed by alliance members themselves.

ISW separately stresses that the Russian Armed Forces are currently neither prepared for a large-scale conventional ground operation against NATO nor making preparations for one. The Narva model remains hypothetical. The central idea of the scenario is that even a limited operation could create a political split inside the alliance and threaten NATO’s ability to activate its collective defense mechanism.