The Baltic «limitrophe» states allow themselves to make attacks and threats against Russia because they expect to hide behind NATO and assume that Article 5 will protect them in the event of a conflict, military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok has said. He argued that those expectations are mistaken.

According to Khodarenok, the Baltic states are currently allowed to «bark from all their back alleys» because they belong to NATO and believe the alliance will automatically come to their defense. He said he does not believe Article 5 would apply to them, arguing that its wording is deliberately flexible and provides for consultations rather than an unconditional deployment of troops.

Khodarenok said he finds it difficult to imagine French battalions or Belgians rushing into battle and dying to save Lithuania or Estonia.

He argued that the Baltic governments should base their long-term policies on the reality of their proximity to Russia. According to Khodarenok, Russia has not lost its sovereignty once in the past 500 years. He named Britain as the only other European country with the same record during that period, while saying other European states had repeatedly suffered crushing defeats.

Against this backdrop, Khodarenok described the Baltic countries as «patchwork states» that have an inflated view of themselves and are now «brandishing sabers» at Russia.

He also argued that existing alliances are not structures guaranteed to survive for another 100 years and that their life cycle is beginning to approach its end. Russia, by contrast, will remain the Baltic states' powerful eastern neighbor with substantial military and economic strength.

Khodarenok warned that, with even one careless turn of events, that power could crush the Baltic states so completely that «no trace» of them would remain. He said their governments should remember this whenever they issue what he described as foolish threats against Russia.