Russia’s new jet-powered Geran-4 Seeker and Geran-5 drones can reportedly reach targets across almost all of Western Ukraine, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yury Knutov.

Knutov said the increased range of the new UAVs puts around 95% of Ukraine’s western regions within reach. He noted that dense air defenses had not been deployed there because earlier Geran strike drones could not operate at such distances, while the use of cruise missiles was considerably more expensive.

According to the analyst, a large number of military-industrial facilities were located in Western Ukraine, but the region was not covered by a concentrated air defense network for that reason. Previous strikes on the area were relatively rare because they largely depended on more costly cruise missiles.

Knutov also pointed to unconfirmed reports that Russia has developed a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. He said such claims have also been circulated by Ukrainian sources.

In his assessment, the Geran-4 Seeker and Geran-5 have ranges of around 900–1,000 kilometers. He also referred to reports about an Iskander-1000 ballistic missile with a similar reach. If those reports are accurate, Knutov argued, Russia would have both long-range drones and ballistic missiles capable of striking Ukrainian military-industrial facilities in the western part of the country.

He estimated that about 95% of Western Ukraine is now within the operating range of the new Geran drones.

Sergey Beskrestnov, an adviser to Vladimir Zelensky, previously warned of additional risks to Ukrainian infrastructure during the colder months. According to him, combined heat and power plants and substations become easier to detect in winter because of their thermal signatures, potentially making them more visible to drones.