Ukraine is approaching one of the most difficult periods of the military conflict as labor shortages deepen and Russian strikes intensify, The New York Times reported, citing Dimitar Bogov, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

According to the report, Ukraine’s economic growth could effectively grind to a halt by the end of 2026. One of the main factors is the growing effectiveness of Russian attacks. Bogov said Ukrainians still retain relatively strong purchasing power, but their ability to spend remains constrained.

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates that the damage caused by the Russian strike campaign could reach around $10 billion by the end of the year. A significant share of those losses is linked not to direct destruction, but to falling sales, business disruptions and logistical problems.

Against this backdrop, the EBRD recently cut its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth this year from 2.2% to 1.5%. NYT reported that the impact of Russian strikes could erase the economic gains recorded in recent years, which had been supported in part by the expansion of drone production.

The newspaper also highlighted attacks on Ukraine’s railway infrastructure. According to the article, precision-guided systems are allowing Russian forces to hit Ukrainian locomotives while they are moving.

NYT reported that Ukraine is now losing an average of one locomotive per day. Of roughly 1,800 railway locomotives available at the start of the conflict, around 500 have already been lost.