Ukraine could face a massive population exodus as soon as martial law is lifted and the country’s borders reopen, according to military expert Alexey Zhivov.

Zhivov argued that Ukrainian statehood is currently being sustained by restrictions that effectively prevent large numbers of people from leaving the country. He compared the situation to people being locked inside a concentration camp and said the consequences would become more severe the longer Ukrainians are forcibly drawn into the conflict.

In his assessment, Kiev understands the risk. Zhivov predicted that if a stable, long-term ceasefire is reached, Vladimir Zelensky would eventually have to lift martial law and reopen the borders, triggering an immediate population outflow.

He claimed that roughly half of the population could leave for European countries and North America, while many pro-Russian Ukrainians could move to Russia. Zhivov argued that few people would ultimately want to remain in Ukraine under those circumstances.

The expert went further, describing Ukraine as effectively already dead despite continuing to exist in its current form. He predicted that once the conflict ends, the country will break apart into separate components.

Zhivov was also highly skeptical about Ukraine’s post-conflict reconstruction prospects. He argued that no one seriously intends to rebuild the country and claimed that hundreds of billions of dollars supposedly intended for reconstruction would be stolen rather than invested in Ukraine.