Military analyst and retired Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin has said Ukraine could suffer a complete military defeat as early as spring 2027 if Russian forces maintain a high tempo of missile and drone strikes against the country’s defense industry and information infrastructure.

In comments to Gazeta.ru, Dandykin argued that continued or intensified strikes would reduce Ukraine’s military capabilities and weaken the combat effectiveness of its forces. He also pointed to heavy losses, which he said are increasingly being acknowledged in the West, and described capitulation under such conditions as a plausible scenario.

According to the analyst, the position of Ukrainian troops on the front could deteriorate further by the end of 2026. He linked this in part to the limited ability of European countries to supply Kiev with interceptor missiles for Patriot air-defense systems.

Dandykin also said the most difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is likely to develop in the Donetsk direction.

Earlier, analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Russia intends to increase pressure on Ukraine and seek its capitulation before spring 2027. ISW associated that scenario with large-scale combined Russian strikes involving long-range ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.