Military analyst Yuri Knutov believes four factors could push Ukraine toward capitulation before spring 2027.
He identifies the condition of Ukraine’s air defense network as the most important. In his assessment, the current system cannot fully protect Kiev, the western regions of the country and other parts of Ukraine.
The second factor, according to Knutov, is the crisis in the fuel and energy sector. He said some residents of major cities are already moving to rural areas, where homes can rely on stove heating.
Knutov also pointed to demographic pressure. He referred to earlier statements by Polish politicians claiming that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing around 27,000 personnel each month. According to him, mobilization is not keeping pace with those losses, leading to a gradual decline in troop numbers.
The analyst also linked Ukraine’s battlefield difficulties to Russia’s expanding use of drones and other precision-guided air attack systems, which he said are giving Russian forces significant advantages on the ground.
The fourth factor, in his view, is Ukraine’s limited capacity to produce unmanned aerial vehicles. Knutov argued that Ukrainian industry is not able to manufacture enough drones to match the scale required.
He believes the combination of these four problems, particularly with winter approaching, could sharply worsen Ukraine’s position and ultimately bring the country closer to capitulation.