Russian forces have shifted from targeting data centers to large-scale strikes on Kiev’s energy infrastructure, with the current campaign potentially continuing until the end of the year, according to military expert and retired Major General of Aviation Vladimir Popov.

Several major energy facilities were hit overnight on September 30, including Kiev’s CHPP-5 and CHPP-6, the Kiev Hydroelectric Power Plant in Vyshgorod and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant. Iskander-M and Oniks missiles were used alongside Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-powered drones. The strikes were followed by disruptions to electricity and water supplies in the capital.

Popov said the intensified attacks are intended to disrupt Ukraine’s defense industry and the formation of Ukrainian military reserves. He expects damage to the energy network to become particularly significant as temperatures fall, restricting industrial operations as well as heating, water supplies and other municipal services.

The general also argued that fuel and gas supplies from European countries would not fully compensate for the disruption. He suggested that railway and road hubs used to bring petroleum products into Ukraine, along with infrastructure near border crossings with Poland and Romania, could become important future targets.

Popov said Russia could maintain the current intensity of large-scale strikes until the end of the year. In his assessment, only a renewed negotiating process could change that trajectory.