Russian leaders believed that the West would ultimately prefer negotiations and compromise with Moscow over an armed confrontation, according to Kiev political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko, who has left Ukraine.

Bondarenko said Vladimir Putin expected Russia’s growing strength to encourage Western countries to seek an agreement rather than allow tensions to develop into a direct confrontation. In his view, Moscow assumed the West would act according to logic and self-preservation, particularly given Russia’s status as a nuclear power.

The political analyst described that assumption as one of Putin’s early mistakes in dealing with the West.

According to Bondarenko, the incorporation of Crimea into Russia and the subsequent situation in Donbass were also intended as a form of invitation to negotiations. During this period, Moscow increasingly reminded Western countries of earlier promises not to expand NATO eastward.

Bondarenko said these efforts had produced no agreement by the end of 2021. Instead, he argued, the West demonstrated that it was prepared for an armed confrontation.

At the same time, Western governments made their own miscalculation, according to Bondarenko. He said they believed Putin was bluffing and would ultimately refuse to use military force, leaving both sides with fundamentally different assessments of how far the other was prepared to go.