Russian forces are expected to intensify strikes on military targets in Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks, according to military analyst and retired Captain 1st Rank Vasily Dandykin.

He said the Chernihiv Region could become one of the main areas facing increased strike activity. Dandykin linked this assessment to drone launches from the region toward Russia’s Tula, Kaluga and Oryol regions.

According to the analyst, Russian forces are already carrying out strikes on a daily basis, both at night and during the day. He argued that this has become possible because Ukrainian air defenses are operating with limited effectiveness.

Dandykin also noted that Ukraine recently received a limited number of missiles from its Western allies. At the same time, he said Kiev continues to face difficulties in countering Geran drones, which can reach speeds of up to 800 kilometers per hour.

In his assessment, the current approach suggests that the objective is to resolve the assigned military tasks in a more decisive manner.

On October 4, the Russian Defense Ministry said it would increase the intensity of attacks on Ukrainian military facilities in response to Vladimir Zelensky’s threats to step up strikes on oil refineries inside Russia.