Russian forces struck a vessel in the northwestern Black Sea that was carrying dual-use cargo and heading toward the port of Odessa. Commenting on the attack, military expert Vasily Dandykin said Russia now effectively controls most of the Black Sea.

According to Dandykin, some shipowners continue to transport cargo intended for the Ukrainian Armed Forces despite the risks because of the large payments involved.

He argued that most maritime supply routes used by Ukrainian forces have already been disrupted. At the same time, he said some vessel owners are still willing to take what he described as unjustified risks. In his assessment, further attacks on such ships could eventually bring these attempts to an end.

Dandykin added that Russian forces are continuing to target other channels used to supply the Ukrainian military. He pointed not only to vessels sailing toward Ukrainian ports, but also to transport infrastructure connected with the movement of military cargo.

The expert cited strikes on Danube ports and bridges, including infrastructure in Zatoka and Mayaki. He said much of the remaining traffic is being redirected through Constanta and Romania, adding that these logistics routes are also being targeted.

In Dandykin’s assessment, Ukrainian military logistics in the Black Sea have therefore been largely blocked, with cargo vessels, Danube ports, bridges and alternative supply routes through Romania and Constanta all coming under attack.