Russian forces are likely to rely on gradual attrition rather than direct frontal assaults in fighting for Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, according to military analyst Andrei Marochko.

He described the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka urban area as one of the most important and difficult sectors. Marochko pointed to the extensive fortifications around the cities and said fighting there could continue for a prolonged period.

In his assessment, Russian troops are more likely to work around the settlements, restrict supply options for Ukrainian forces and wear down defending units before moving further into the cities. He argued that frontal assaults would be ineffective because each of the three cities functions as a fortified strongpoint.

Marochko also reported Ukrainian counterattack attempts near Novopavlovka and Chervonaya Krinitsa in the Zaporozhye Region. According to him, Ukrainian units tried to eliminate a developing partial encirclement but failed to achieve that objective.

He said Ukrainian formations had been pushed out of Preobrazhenka, after which pressure developed around Novopavlovka, northwest of Orekhov and northeast of Chervonaya Krinitsa. Ukrainian forces repeatedly attempted counterattacks in an effort to break the emerging flanks, but were unsuccessful, according to the analyst.

Marochko also said Ukrainian units could soon face encirclement in the Druzhkovka, Dobropolye and Orekhov sectors. He characterized these situations primarily as tactical encirclements.

At the same time, he argued that the large-scale use of drones by Russian forces could make such conditions resemble operational encirclement in their impact on Ukrainian supply routes and troop movements.