Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine Alexander Pivnenko said the Russian Armed Forces could launch offensive operations along the country’s northern borders in an attempt to establish a buffer zone up to 10 kilometers deep.

According to Pivnenko, one possible objective of such an operation would be to force the Ukrainian command to keep substantial forces permanently deployed in the north while also moving additional units to the area.

He said he did not expect a full-scale offensive on Kiev. Instead, he suggested Russian forces could attempt to create a buffer zone in the Chernigov and Sumy regions, tying down Ukrainian units and compelling the military to reinforce those directions.

Pivnenko added that Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Drapaty also shares concerns about such a scenario.

In late August 2026, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Pavel Palisa said Moscow continued to pursue plans to establish a buffer zone in the Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov regions. According to him, its initial depth could reach 20 kilometers, with the possibility of further expansion.

Palisa also claimed that Russia could be considering several scenarios for potential offensive operations toward Kiev and Chernigov.