Ukraine’s military is unlikely to sustain combat operations for another 30 years and may struggle to hold out for even one more year, according to military expert Vasily Dandykin. He argued that Kyiv will face growing difficulties replenishing troops and supplying the army with the resources it needs.

Dandykin said surrender would be the best option for Ukrainian soldiers and dismissed the idea of fighting for another three decades as unrealistic. In his view, the immediate problem is manpower, as Ukraine may not be able to find enough personnel to keep the fighting going even for another year.

He also pointed to Russian Armed Forces strikes on targets deep in the rear, including bridges, ports, transport networks and energy infrastructure. Dandykin noted that Ukrainian troops require a steady flow of food, ammunition and weapons, as well as adequate conditions to keep personnel warm, while pressure on supporting infrastructure makes those needs harder to meet.

According to the expert, Ukrainian forces are still attempting counterattacks in some sectors, but those efforts are being stopped. He also drew attention to a decline in the intensity of UAV attacks. Dandykin said Kyiv had previously been able to send as many as 1,000 drones a day, while the current figure has fallen to roughly 200–300. He attributed the decline in part to the effectiveness of Russian air defenses.

The comments followed a report by Ukrainskaya Pravda that a team led by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Drapaty had drafted a long-term strategy for confrontation with Russia covering the next 30 years. Citing senior sources, the publication said the plan has been under review by Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council for several weeks.