The military conflict in Ukraine could soon enter its most dangerous phase for Kiev, according to Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND). He made the assessment during the agency’s annual parliamentary hearings in the Bundestag.

German intelligence expects Russia to increase pressure on Ukraine during the coming winter as Moscow pursues its strategic objectives. Jäger said Russian forces could significantly intensify strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure while also stepping up pressure along the front.

The BND chief also warned of the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Germany and Russia. He claimed that Moscow was already conducting what he described as a «shadow war» against European countries.

According to Jäger, Russia is determined to force Ukraine into submission this winter, and the scale and intensity of possible Russian attacks could exceed anything seen so far during the conflict.

At the same time, the BND does not see evidence that Russia is preparing a large-scale attack on NATO member states. That assessment contrasts with repeated warnings in Europe about the possibility of a broader military confrontation between Russia and the alliance.

Jäger also said Moscow could potentially prepare covert, hybrid or localized operations. In his assessment, such actions could resemble the events in Crimea in 2014, including the appearance of forces he referred to as «green men».