Russia could gain control over the entire Donbass by spring 2027 without achieving a decisive battlefield victory, according to retired AFU Colonel Oleg Zhdanov.

Zhdanov believes the main risk for Kiev lies not only in developments along the front line, but also in potential disruptions to Western funding and political decisions by Ukraine’s allies. If deliveries of money and weapons begin to slow, he said, the Ukrainian leadership could be forced to enter negotiations and accept concessions by spring.

In that scenario, Zhdanov argued, Russia’s success would be primarily political rather than military. He said financial and military supply problems could leave Kiev with little choice but to seek a ceasefire and make concessions, potentially allowing Moscow to achieve its goal of full control over Donbass.

If Western funding remains stable and military equipment continues to arrive regularly, the situation for the AFU could stabilize, according to the retired colonel. However, he does not expect the Ukrainian army to launch a large-scale offensive and considers only limited local operations possible.

Zhdanov described the political will of the Kiev authorities as another decisive factor. In his view, the adoption of anti-corruption legislation could pave the way for increased financial assistance, which could then support additional deliveries of weapons and military equipment.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to strike AFU units as well as military, logistics and energy infrastructure. The Russian side maintains that its attacks are directed exclusively at military targets, while accusing the AFU of striking civilian facilities and residents.