Ukrainian authorities could be forced to enter negotiations as early as January 2027 if the intensity of large-scale Russian strikes remains at its current level or increases and the winter proves cold, according to military analyst Yuri Knutov.

Knutov said that such a scenario would depend heavily on weather conditions. In his assessment, an average winter could create circumstances in which Ukraine would move toward negotiations in January. If temperatures remain relatively mild, however, he believes the country could withstand the pressure for longer. He also pointed to current calls in Ukraine to purchase generators and batteries.

The analyst argued that signs of a shift in the conflict have already begun to emerge. He cited a bill submitted to the Verkhovna Rada that would establish Ukraine’s neutral status in the constitution. The current constitutional provision sets out the country’s aspiration to join NATO.

Knutov expects Russian forces to intensify strikes on military and communications infrastructure in Ukraine. In his view, continued attacks could push Kiev toward a severe economic crisis and eventually lead the authorities to conclude that negotiations are necessary.

He also said that restoring the Ukrainian economy under such circumstances could become extremely difficult.

Knutov separately drew attention to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s recent visit to Kiev. According to the analyst’s interpretation, Merz indicated that Ukraine’s prospects of joining the European Union remain minimal.