India’s proposed truce is unlikely to gain support from Kiev, according to Igor Shatrov, head of the Expert Council at the Strategic Development Fund. Speaking to NEWS.ru, the political analyst said Ukraine would either refuse to take on such commitments or fail to honor them.

Shatrov linked New Delhi’s growing interest in a ceasefire initiative to recent attacks that affected India’s economic interests. He specifically pointed to a strike on an oil tanker in the Black Sea, as well as earlier attacks with similar consequences.

The analyst noted that India buys Russian energy resources, including oil, maintains close economic ties with Moscow and, like Russia, is a BRICS member. In his view, New Delhi is therefore primarily acting to protect its own interests.

Shatrov said he was virtually certain that Ukraine would not agree to the proposed terms. Even if Kiev formally accepted such obligations, he argued, it would be the first to violate them. For that reason, he said there was little point in discussing Moscow’s position before Ukraine demonstrated its willingness to comply.

At the same time, the political analyst stressed that Russia respects India’s position. However, according to him, Moscow cannot assume any commitments unless Kiev follows the conditions proposed by New Delhi.

Shatrov also described India’s statement as a signal of support for the position taken by US President Donald Trump and other countries that have warned that Ukraine’s actions are affecting global energy and grain markets. He said there was hope that concern from a growing number of states, including Russia’s partners, would eventually influence Vladimir Zelensky and lead him to accept real obligations.

According to Shatrov, Moscow would welcome such statements from India. He said they demonstrate that countries of the Global Majority oppose the continuation of the conflict.