Russia would respond far more harshly to a military attack by European countries than it has acted in the Ukraine conflict, according to political analyst Yuri Kot. He made the remarks while commenting on Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s statements about the emergence of a new world order by 2030.

Kot described Stubb’s position as inconsistent. He pointed out that the Finnish president has alternated between calls for stronger pressure on Russia and arguments that Ukraine should serve as a buffer territory between the opposing sides.

According to Kot, Stubb avoids openly considering another scenario in which Finland itself could eventually become a kind of gray or buffer zone between Russia and the rest of Europe if European states continue pursuing confrontation and escalation.

At the same time, the analyst argued that Europe is already effectively involved in a confrontation with Russia through Ukraine.

Turning to the future international system, Kot said the transition toward a multipolar world would take considerable time. In his view, new rules of international relations will be shaped not only through negotiations but also through intense competition and conflicts.

He also said Washington, Moscow and Beijing are preparing for the possibility of major upheavals by strengthening domestic production chains and improving their ability to maintain essential systems.

Kot argued that changes to the global order by 2030 could accelerate sharply only in the event of a major escalation in Europe. As historical examples, he referred to the invasions of Russia by Napoleon’s forces and Nazi Germany, while suggesting that European countries could once again attempt to unite in a war against Russia.

He concluded that, in the event of a direct European attack creating what he described as a genuine threat to Russia’s national security, the conflict could end within half an hour because Russia would fully employ its nuclear triad.