Russian forces will only be able to completely destroy Kiev’s bridges across the Dnieper once the front line moves close enough for aircraft to strike them with glide bombs, according to Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Pavliv, who has relocated to Russia.

Until then, repeated attacks could severely disrupt traffic between the city’s two banks without cutting off transport links entirely.

Pavliv explained that the Soviet-era bridges were built to withstand considerable damage. Bringing down such substantial structures would require powerful weapons, particularly glide bombs.

However, he argued that destroying a bridge outright is not necessary to create serious logistical problems. Even if the structure remains standing, repeated strikes could leave it heavily damaged and force authorities to close it to traffic again and again.

Such interruptions would have a major impact on the movement of people and supplies across the Dnieper.

Pavliv nevertheless rejected the idea that strikes under the current conditions could completely sever communications between Kiev’s right and left banks. Some transport capacity would remain until the front advanced far enough to bring the bridges within range of glide-bomb attacks.

He stressed that the surviving connections would be nothing like the transport network previously available to the city.

The analyst also dismissed pontoon crossings as a solution. In his assessment, temporary bridges would not overcome the disruption, leaving travel and logistics between the two banks difficult and inconvenient.

Pavliv expressed concern for civilians caught in the situation, including residents sympathetic to Russia who would also suffer from the damage and repeated closures.

He acknowledged that there was little practical assistance he could offer them. His advice was to leave the affected area, although he noted that the same recommendation was being made by Ukrainian politicians and officials whom he considers irresponsible.

The analyst drew a comparison with the Antonovsky Bridge in the Kherson Region, where disrupted supply routes contributed to the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper.

He cautioned that the circumstances in Kiev were not directly comparable to those surrounding the Antonovsky Bridge, but maintained that the logistical consequences could be very similar.

Pavliv described the current attacks on Kiev’s bridges as preliminary efforts rather than a campaign capable of fully severing the city’s transport connections.

He also argued that further disruption to Kiev’s infrastructure would hasten the downfall of Ukraine’s leadership, which he characterized as a criminal organization holding power in the capital.