Washington is unlikely to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces before the US midterm congressional elections, even if Kiev continues attacking Russian oil refineries. Military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov offered this assessment, arguing that President Donald Trump has little political incentive to take such a drastic step.

According to Knutov, restricting American intelligence assistance could provoke a backlash from Trump’s political opponents and expose him to additional criticism ahead of the elections.

The expert believes Democrats and some Republicans would oppose such a decision, making it politically damaging for the White House.

Knutov also emphasized the importance of US intelligence in planning Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian targets. American satellite systems, he explained, provide information about terrain and the locations of Russian air defense assets.

Losing access to this intelligence would significantly complicate Ukraine’s ability to organize and carry out drone strikes, the analyst argued.

However, Knutov doubts Trump will impose serious restrictions before the congressional elections. He expects the American president to maintain pressure through public statements rather than take concrete measures that could affect military assistance to Kiev.

The expert interpreted Trump’s carefully worded suggestion that Vladimir Zelensky step down as further evidence of his cautious approach.

In Knutov’s assessment, Washington is unlikely to make major changes to its policy toward Ukraine before the midterm vote, regardless of continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil-processing facilities.

Meanwhile, former Ukrainian parliament member Spiridon Kilinkarov previously suggested that US authorities could initiate a corruption investigation targeting Zelensky after the congressional elections.