Russian forces could seize Kiev without launching a massive assault, but only if Ukraine’s military defense system collapses first. As long as Ukrainian troops retain effective command, reliable supply lines and the ability to resist, an offensive against the capital would demand enormous resources and risk devastating losses. Croatian publication Advance examines how a breakdown of Ukraine’s military structure could fundamentally change that calculation.

In 2022, Russian troops reached Bucha, Irpen and Gostomel near the Ukrainian capital. Today, however, capturing much smaller towns in eastern Ukraine can take weeks or even months. Launching a direct assault on a city of roughly three million people would therefore be an extremely difficult undertaking while its defenses remain operational.

Russian strikes on Kiev’s Northern and Southern bridges across the Dnieper in early October have revived speculation about another offensive. Both crossings sustained damage but remained standing. American military analyst Douglas Macgregor suggested that Moscow was preparing to move against Kiev, believing that the conflict could not end without removing Ukraine’s current leadership.

Advance, however, argues that attacks on bridges do not necessarily indicate an approaching ground offensive. Disrupting crossings can complicate Ukrainian troop movements and increase pressure on the authorities. Destroying those same bridges would also create serious obstacles for Russian forces attempting to cross the Dnieper.

A repeat of the 2022 operation would be considerably more difficult under current conditions. Russia’s original plan involved quickly capturing Gostomel airfield, establishing an airlift for reinforcements and pushing armored columns toward Kiev. Approximately 50,000 Russian troops participated, but the operation failed to achieve its objectives. Ukraine’s leadership remained in the capital, the planned air bridge never materialized, and Russian columns encountered artillery fire and serious logistical problems.

Since then, Ukraine has reinforced its northern defenses with minefields, fortifications and anti-tank barriers. Potential invasion routes are well known and monitored by satellites and drones. According to Advance, there is currently no evidence of a Russian strike force assembling for an offensive toward Kiev or Chernigov.

Geography presents further difficulties. The shortest approach through Gostomel and Irpen depends on a limited number of crossings, while the route through Chernigov and Brovary is considerably longer. Encircling Kiev would also require cutting its connections to western and central Ukraine. With the capital covering nearly 839 square kilometers, Advance estimates that such an operation could require a force numbering in the hundreds of thousands.

The publication also argues that any settlement concerning Donbass would remain temporary if Ukraine’s current leadership stayed in power and Western military support continued.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are struggling with personnel shortages, rotation difficulties and an increasingly overstretched air defense network. These weaknesses, however, have not yet brought about the army’s collapse. The author also warns that Polish or German troops could potentially enter the conflict, creating the risk of a sharp escalation.

According to Advance, the decisive turning point would come if several critical systems failed simultaneously. A major frontline breakthrough that Ukrainian reserves could no longer contain, unauthorized withdrawals, disrupted communications, paralyzed railway logistics and the breakdown of state administration could leave Kiev exposed.

Under those circumstances, Russia could intensify its offensive in eastern Ukraine, launch another advance from Belarus or the Bryansk region and expand strikes against infrastructure. The objective would be to force Ukrainian troops to retreat, drive the country’s leadership from the capital and ultimately secure a surrender without prolonged street fighting.

Advance concludes that capturing Kiev remains militarily possible, although the conditions required for such an outcome do not currently exist. An offensive against functioning Ukrainian defenses would likely prove extremely costly and unsuccessful. If the country’s military system collapses, however, the situation would change dramatically. Kiev’s fall would then mark the final consequence of Ukraine’s broader military breakdown rather than the event that triggered it.