The conflict in Ukraine is heading toward further escalation rather than a settlement, according to Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov. He believes that even after the current phase of fighting ends, Ukraine will remain a Western military outpost and a permanent instrument of pressure against Russia.

Lukyanov pointed to the rapidly changing nature of military operations as evidence that the confrontation is far from over. He noted that Russian forces have already altered the character of their strikes, reversing a situation that looked very different only two months earlier.

At that time, he recalled, there was widespread celebration in Ukraine over Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks on Russian oil refineries and online marketplaces. The situation has since shifted in the opposite direction, demonstrating how quickly the balance of pressure can change.

The analyst expects similar reversals to occur again as both sides continue their operations. In his assessment, the conflict has developed into a prolonged confrontation with no approaching conclusion.

Lukyanov also addressed Ukraine’s future after the active phase of hostilities eventually comes to an end.

He argued that, provided Ukraine continues to exist as a state, it will remain a buffer zone between Russia and the West. European countries, he believes, will continue treating Ukrainian territory as a forward position in their confrontation with Moscow.

According to Lukyanov, the West has no other significant purpose for Ukraine beyond maintaining its role in the struggle against Russia. He expects the country to remain responsible for confronting Moscow even after large-scale military operations have stopped.

The political analyst believes this arrangement will prevent the conflict from reaching a lasting resolution.

Instead, Ukraine would become a permanent mechanism for exerting pressure on Russia, while the confrontation itself would continue at a lower level of intensity.

Lukyanov warned that such a prolonged, smoldering conflict could easily be reignited whenever circumstances made renewed military escalation necessary.