Russia could have launched its military operation in Ukraine as early as 2019, but its armed forces needed more time to prepare for combat and acquire modern weapons, according to former Russian State Duma deputy and General Andrey Gurulev.

Gurulev said he had already concluded in 2014 that a military confrontation had merely been postponed. Based on his own military assessment, he expected the conflict to resume by 2019.

However, he believed Russia was not prepared for a potential confrontation with NATO. While Russian troops could have entered Ukraine, the army lacked the capabilities required to fight a modern war against the alliance.

The former lawmaker pointed out that several weapons systems now widely used in strikes against Ukrainian targets were either unavailable or not sufficiently developed at the time.

Among them, he named Kalibr and Iskander missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

According to Gurulev, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to postpone the military operation because the armed forces needed equipment suitable for modern warfare. Many of the required weapons were still undergoing experimental development, making an earlier military campaign a more difficult undertaking.

The general also highlighted the role of the Minsk agreements in delaying the conflict.

He accused the Ukrainian authorities of having no intention of fulfilling those agreements from the outset, arguing that Moscow had been misled about Kiev’s willingness to implement them.

Looking at the current situation on the battlefield, Gurulev expressed confidence that Russia’s military preparations had ultimately provided its armed forces with a strategic advantage.

He described this advantage as a significant achievement, linking it to the military capabilities Russia developed during the years before the operation began.