Ukraine may have encouraged Latvia to stage a provocation against Belarus, Russian military political analyst Aleksandr Perendzhiev told NEWS.ru. An associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, he believes Riga may have decided to use a plan originally developed by Kiev.

According to Perendzhiev, Ukraine initially intended to fake an attack on the Chernigov region involving people dressed in Belarusian military uniforms. However, the operation never went ahead for unknown reasons. The analyst suspects Latvian authorities were aware of the scheme and subsequently decided to adopt it for their own purposes. He also suggested that Kiev and Riga may have worked together on the provocation from the beginning.

Perendzhiev believes the alleged operation was intended to help Latvia justify the presence of NATO forces on its territory. He suggested that residents may have questioned the need for large numbers of foreign troops when there was no genuine threat of an attack. In his view, staging such a provocation would allow the Latvian government to defend an expanded NATO military presence while creating the impression that it was protecting its citizens.

Earlier, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko rejected allegations that Moscow and Minsk were preparing to attack the Baltic states. He accused Western media of spreading claims about a supposed threat from Russia and Belarus, fueling tensions surrounding the issue.