Ukraine’s failure to receive advance warnings from its Western allies about Russian ballistic missile launches may have resulted from negligence or the deteriorating condition of Kiev’s early warning system, according to retired special forces colonel and military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk.

In an interview with Lenta.ru, Matviychuk questioned whether US President Donald Trump had deliberately suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine. He suggested that the missing alert was more likely caused by personnel failing to respond or by technical problems within Kiev’s warning infrastructure.

The analyst explained that Ukraine’s air defense network relies on several interconnected components, including early threat detection, attack warnings, target tracking data and interception systems.

According to Matviychuk, these essential elements are now barely functioning in Ukraine, potentially leaving the country unable to detect or respond to incoming threats in time.

However, the retired colonel did not entirely dismiss the possibility of political interference from Washington.

He acknowledged that Trump could have deliberately restricted intelligence transfers to teach Vladimir Zelensky a lesson. At the same time, Matviychuk emphasized that this explanation remained speculative, particularly because the American president does not make such decisions entirely on his own.

The expert pointed to the close coordination between Western intelligence agencies, including American, French and German services. He argued that even if Washington had withheld information, Ukraine’s European allies should still have provided warnings about the approaching missiles.

During the night of October 13, Russian forces carried out coordinated strikes against targets across Ukraine, including facilities in Kiev.

Following the attacks, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat and Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine had received no advance warning from Western countries about the Russian strikes.