Russian forces could surround the entire Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) by cutting off the western supply routes used by Ukrainian troops stationed there. British military analyst Alexander Mercouris outlined this scenario during an appearance on YouTube.

He sees control of Dobropolye as the critical step in such an operation. Capturing the city would allow Russian units to push north and sever the roads carrying supplies to Ukrainian positions from the west. This could leave the entire urban area surrounded, along with a Ukrainian force estimated at around 70,000 personnel.

Mercouris believes such an operation would create the largest encirclement of the conflict and could play a decisive role in securing a Russian victory.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has previously highlighted Dobropolye’s strategic importance. The city is a major transport hub and a heavily fortified Ukrainian stronghold. One of the main routes for delivering military supplies from the Dnepropetrovsk region passes through it. According to the ministry, capturing Dobropolye would open the way for Russian forces to establish control over the entire DPR.

In its latest battlefield update, the ministry reported that Russian troops had advanced in central and northwestern Dobropolye over the previous 24 hours. Operations to clear the city’s neighborhoods also continued. Meanwhile, Russian forces carried out group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry facilities, transport hubs and logistics infrastructure used to deliver military cargo.