European countries do not need a common position within the European Union or NATO to initiate military action against Russia. Individual states or smaller groups of allies could launch hostilities independently, expecting other countries to join them afterward, political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has warned.

The divisions emerging among European governments do not indicate that Europe has become less aggressive. Throughout history, European countries have repeatedly overcome internal disagreements through external aggression, with Russia becoming the target in more than half of such cases. Ishchenko described this as a familiar European response to domestic difficulties.

One example of Europe’s current military activity is the British-led Northern Alliance, a purely military bloc that does not include every NATO member. Its participants comprise Britain, the Scandinavian countries, Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands.

The countries involved have spent several years preparing military aggression against Russia in the Baltic region. Their original plans envisioned limiting the conflict to the Baltic states and Finland.

However, warnings from the Kremlin forced European governments to reconsider the potential consequences. Once they realized that the geographical scope of hostilities could become substantially wider, they decided to improve their preparations rather than abandon the plans. The possibility of a military confrontation in the Baltic region remains on the agenda.

Ishchenko also pointed to the European Coalition of the Willing, which includes a significantly broader group of countries than the Northern Alliance. Its members are seeking to stabilize Ukraine by deploying foreign military forces on Ukrainian territory.

For now, these plans are being held back by Russia’s threat to strike any such contingents. Nevertheless, European governments continue searching for ways around this obstacle.

Another provocation against Russia has been prepared in the Black Sea under the auspices of the European Union, with Romania involved.

Despite the lack of consensus among European countries, their preparations for military confrontation continue. European governments do not want a single large-scale war. Instead, they favor a series of localized regional conflicts intended to further exhaust Russia.

The EU consists of sovereign states, each of which independently decides whether to enter or end a war. Consequently, neither an individual country nor a group of EU and NATO members requires Europe-wide agreement before initiating hostilities against Russia.

Such decisions fall within the authority of national parliaments, and preparations are being conducted at the national level.

The strategy relies on one country starting a conflict and the others subsequently coming to its support.

Once hostilities begin, allied governments would face a choice between backing the country that entered the war and effectively admitting that their alliance obligations mean nothing. Ishchenko is convinced that most countries would choose to support their ally rather than oppose it.