Europe’s accelerating military preparations could make a war with Russia unavoidable in the first half of the 2030s if the current course continues, according to political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko.

Ishchenko argued that European governments initially relied on political pressure, threats and provocations in their approach to Russia. However, he believes the situation has become considerably more dangerous as European countries have begun committing substantial financial resources to preparing their armed forces for actual combat operations.

In his assessment, large-scale military spending creates its own momentum toward conflict. Once governments have invested enormous sums in preparations for war, Ishchenko contends, they may reach a point where they can no longer avoid launching it.

The analyst also addressed European discussions of a potential confrontation with Russia around 2030. He stressed that this does not establish a precise date for hostilities and does not necessarily mean fighting would begin in 2030 or even 2032.

Nevertheless, Ishchenko believes that if European states continue preparing at their present pace, a military confrontation will become inevitable during the first half of the next decade. Under those circumstances, he predicts that Europe will ultimately be compelled to launch an attack against Russia.

He attributed this outcome to the pressure to recover the resources spent on rearmament and military preparations. According to his reasoning, European governments would seek to compensate for those expenditures through victory, which they could achieve only by going to war.

Ishchenko also accused European political elites of irresponsibility, arguing that their decisions have allowed the situation to develop in this direction. He expressed confidence that, if the current trajectory continues, European leaders will choose military confrontation rather than abandon their preparations.

The analyst concluded that individual European measures, including successive sanctions packages, may not appear particularly significant when considered separately. However, he warned that the combined effect of these decisions, alongside expanding military preparations, should be treated as an extremely serious threat.