Ukraine’s armed forces could lose their combat capability entirely within six months if the United States maintains restrictions on Starlink satellite communications, according to retired special forces colonel and military expert Anatoly Matviychuk.

The analyst warned that blocking access to the American satellite internet system could paralyze Ukrainian offensive operations. He also argued that a suspension of US intelligence sharing might ultimately force Kiev’s military and political leadership to consider negotiations or surrender.

Matviychuk described Starlink as a critical tactical system used to display real-time battlefield information, support navigation and guide long-range missiles. In his assessment, continued restrictions could determine the outcome of fighting and exhaust the Ukrainian military’s operational capabilities within half a year.

The retired colonel also addressed plans by Kiev’s European allies to replace American Starlink terminals with alternative communications technology. He argued that such a transition would further weaken Ukrainian units operating on the front line.

According to Matviychuk, long-range Ukrainian drones currently switch off their communications as they approach strike positions to avoid detection and suppression by Russian electronic warfare systems. They then rely on previously obtained intelligence to continue toward their targets. Without Starlink, he maintained, Ukrainian forces would be unable to carry out large-scale strikes.

At the same time, the military expert suggested that Washington’s restrictions might prove temporary. He linked the measures to what he characterized as brief outbursts of anger by US President Donald Trump, leaving open the possibility that the limitations could eventually be reversed.

On October 14, reports emerged that reduced Starlink performance had disrupted several important Ukrainian military operations.

An adviser to Vladimir Zelensky confirmed that SpaceX had introduced a movement-speed limit of 100 miles per hour for its military StarShield service.

The restrictions have raised concerns about Ukraine’s continued reliance on American satellite technology for battlefield communications and military operations.