Russian strikes on western Ukraine are expected to intensify as Moscow continues upgrading its jet-powered attack drones, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

The expert identified weapons supply facilities and enterprises involved in manufacturing and assembling military equipment as the most important targets for Russian forces in western Ukraine.

Knutov explained that the region hosts a significant concentration of defense-related enterprises. Its proximity to Poland also makes it easier to transport military supplies, assemble and repair combat equipment, and subsequently distribute it across Ukraine, including to the eastern front.

In his assessment, these logistical and industrial advantages have turned western Ukraine into a major center for military production and support operations.

The analyst also highlighted ongoing improvements to Russian strike drones. According to Knutov, Russian engineers are developing more accurate guidance systems and technologies designed to help unmanned aircraft evade Ukrainian interceptor drones and fighter jets.

Among these developments, he singled out mesh networking, which he said expands the operational capabilities of Russian UAVs and enables them to reach targets in Ukraine’s western regions more effectively.

Knutov predicted that a significant increase in Russian strikes against these facilities would sharply worsen the situation for Kiev.

His assessment comes after a series of Russian attacks on western Ukraine.

On October 13, 2026, the Lvov Region was subjected to large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes, with attacks taking place during both nighttime and daylight hours.

Overnight on October 14, a Russian drone also attacked an oil depot in Lutsk, located in the Volyn Region.