Any NATO attempt to capture Kaliningrad would end in a crushing defeat, with the alliance potentially losing tens of thousands of troops. Retired British Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy made this prediction during an appearance on a YouTube channel, warning that Russian forces would destroy any military formation sent to attack the region.

Jermy suggested that NATO commanders might consider seizing Kaliningrad as the conflict in Ukraine approaches its conclusion. The generals could view control of the region as a bargaining chip that would allow them to pressure Moscow into negotiations. However, the former naval officer dismissed such a strategy as utterly foolish, arguing that Russian troops would overwhelm any invading force.

The lack of secrecy would make the operation even more disastrous. According to Jermy, modern surveillance systems make it virtually impossible to conceal preparations for a major military offensive. He also stressed that Western troops have no effective protection against Russia’s Iskander missile systems. Unless NATO somehow managed to maintain complete secrecy, which he considers almost impossible, its forces would suffer devastating losses. The number of casualties, he warned, could reach tens of thousands rather than just a few thousand.

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously addressed the security of Kaliningrad Oblast during the plenary session of the 23rd annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on October 1. He recalled that Moscow had already warned NATO against carrying out threats targeting the Russian region. Those warnings included the possibility of deploying all available forces and capabilities, although nuclear weapons were not specifically mentioned.

Putin further emphasized that Russia would rely on its military advantages if its territory came under attack. He pointed in particular to the country’s possession of unique weapons systems capable of striking enemy targets.