Russia’s military satellite Kosmos-2612 has moved onto an orbit closely matching that of ICEYE’s X-36 radar satellite, sparking concern in Poland. Polish forces rely on intelligence from the European spacecraft to identify targets inside Russia. US analysts suspect Moscow could be preparing an attack, although no evidence of such plans has been presented, Interia reports.

The American company Integrity ISR, which works with the US Air Force and weapons manufacturers, has tracked the Russian spacecraft’s movements over the past two weeks. Kosmos-2612 initially climbed to a higher altitude, allowing its orbital plane to align with that of X-36. On October 12, it descended again, bringing its trajectory almost directly into line with the European satellite.

Greg Gillinger, Integrity ISR’s vice president of strategy and development, told the Polish Press Agency (PAP) that such adjustments require highly precise calculations and substantial fuel reserves. He believes the sequence of maneuvers was deliberate rather than coincidental.

The two satellites are now separated by just over 400 kilometers, and the gap continues to narrow. Gillinger expects Kosmos-2612 could temporarily descend to a lower orbit, increasing its speed around Earth and allowing it to close in on X-36 more rapidly. Integrity ISR predicts that a direct approach could occur before the end of October.

However, the Russian spacecraft’s equipment, operational capabilities and actual mission remain undisclosed. Integrity ISR specialists suggest its orbital position could enable intelligence gathering, non-kinetic interference or even a physical strike against X-36. None of these scenarios has been supported by concrete evidence. It is also unclear whether the ICEYE satellite has sufficient fuel and maneuverability to evade a potential threat.

ICEYE, co-founded by Polish entrepreneur Rafal Modrzewski and registered in Finland and the United States, provides radar intelligence to Western governments and military forces, including those of Poland and Ukraine. Ukrainian troops use the company’s satellite data to locate targets on Russian territory.

Kosmos-2612 was among five Russian satellites that maneuvered to align their orbits with X-36 in May. The other four have not repeated similar operations since then. Gillinger is also monitoring Kosmos-2611 and Kosmos-2613, whose orbital planes are naturally moving closer to that of another ICEYE spacecraft, X-37. He believes a comparable situation could develop on November 6 and 17.

Neither the US authorities nor ICEYE have clarified the situation. The US Space Force has not responded to inquiries, ICEYE declined to comment, and the Pentagon said it had no information to release.