China’s new restrictions on drone exports and related technologies could significantly limit Ukraine’s ability to launch attacks against Russian targets, according to military analyst Alexander Perendzhiev, an associate professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

Perendzhiev believes Beijing’s decision may be connected to a proposed peace plan and could have emerged from lengthy negotiations between Russia and China.

The analyst claimed that Ukraine has been purchasing Chinese drones and components for years. He pointed to what he described as Ukrainian strikes against Belarus and Iran, alleging that fragments of Chinese-made unmanned aerial vehicles were recovered afterward. According to Perendzhiev, the use of Chinese equipment in such operations has complicated relations between Moscow and Beijing.

The expert paid particular attention to Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russia’s fuel infrastructure. He argued that tighter Chinese export controls could restrict Kiev’s ability to organize and carry out similar strikes.

Perendzhiev also suggested that the new measures might indicate preparations for a trilateral meeting involving Russia, China and the United States.

The restrictions may extend beyond Ukraine to Western countries, the analyst noted. Under his proposed scenario, Western buyers could be permitted to purchase Chinese drones and components exclusively for civilian purposes, while supplies intended for military use would be prohibited.

Russia, meanwhile, could benefit from the changes, according to Perendzhiev. He suggested that Moscow might gain additional opportunities to acquire Chinese unmanned systems or potentially receive direct assistance from Beijing.

China is scheduled to introduce revised export controls covering unmanned aerial vehicles, their components and associated technologies on November 18.

The measures have been approved by China’s State Council and Central Military Commission. They will cover autonomous flight systems, radio communications, control technologies and interference-resistant satellite navigation equipment.