Ukraine could face an exceptionally difficult winter as Russia continues to expand its stockpiles of missiles and long-range attack drones, according to Ukrainian sources. Analysts in Kiev believe Moscow has accumulated substantial reserves of weapons while steadily increasing production.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) estimates that, as of October 2026, Russia has up to 700 ballistic missiles and several thousand cruise missiles of various types in reserve.
According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, the Russian military currently possesses approximately 115 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 450 Kalibr cruise missiles. Russian defense manufacturers are reportedly producing around 65 Iskander-M missiles and 29 Kalibr missiles each month. Meanwhile, the country’s stockpile of Geran drones across various models is estimated at 6,200 units.
The fastest production growth, however, has been recorded in the attack drone sector. Ukrainian sources claim that Russia manufactures up to 10,000 Geran-series UAVs per month, including approximately 4,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones.
Analysts in Kiev believe Russian forces are deliberately building up their missile reserves while relying primarily on unmanned aircraft for current strikes. They suggest that Moscow could launch large-scale missile attacks once colder weather arrives.
Ukrainian sources also warn that the impact of such strikes could be significantly more severe during winter, when freezing temperatures would increase the consequences of damage to the country’s infrastructure.