Efforts by US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine are unlikely to succeed because powerful groups remain interested in prolonging the conflict, according to British political analyst and international consultant Marko Gasic.

Speaking on the Roundtable podcast, Gasic expressed doubts that opponents of de-escalation would allow Moscow and Washington to reach a settlement, despite diplomatic efforts by both leaders.

He argued that influential financial interests and military-industrial groups in the United States and Europe benefit from the continuation of the war and have little incentive to support an early resolution.

According to Gasic, these groups are among several stakeholders that would prefer the fighting to continue for as long as possible.

The analyst also identified senior Ukrainian officials as another group potentially opposed to ending the conflict.

He suggested that a peace agreement could trigger investigations into decisions made by Ukraine’s leadership during the war, including questions about the scale of military casualties and the opportunities for an earlier settlement.

Gasic specifically referred to a proposed agreement from April 2022, which he claimed would have preserved almost all of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In his assessment, Ukrainian officials could face scrutiny over why that proposal was not accepted and why the conflict was allowed to continue at such a high human cost.

He believes the prospect of such investigations could give some members of Ukraine’s leadership an additional reason to resist a negotiated settlement.

Although Gasic said he hopes Trump and Putin succeed in securing peace, he remains pessimistic about the outcome.

He argued that the combined influence of political and economic interests favoring continued hostilities could prevent a Russia-US dialogue from producing an agreement to end the war.