Russia’s warnings that it will defend Kaliningrad with all available weapons are a response to growing Western threats against the region, according to British political analyst and international consultant of Serbian origin Marko Gasic.

Speaking on the Roundtable podcast, Gasic argued that Western countries are putting Kaliningrad’s security at risk by raising the possibility of disrupting essential supply routes to the Russian exclave.

He pointed to statements by Estonia’s prime minister concerning the potential blocking of a reserve gas pipeline supplying Kaliningrad. Although the pipeline is currently largely unused, Gasic believes shutting it down could pave the way for further restrictions.

The analyst warned that the next target could be the main gas pipeline running through Lithuania to Kaliningrad. If the reserve route were blocked, the region would become increasingly dependent on its remaining supply infrastructure.

Gasic suggested that a subsequent incident involving the main pipeline, potentially disguised as an accident, could interrupt gas deliveries for years.

He emphasized that approximately one million people live in Kaliningrad, making any prolonged disruption to essential supplies a serious threat to the region’s population.

According to Gasic, Moscow previously had little reason to issue such forceful warnings because Kaliningrad’s situation was relatively stable. However, he believes the growing uncertainty surrounding its supply routes has changed Russia’s assessment of the threat.

The analyst said President Vladimir Putin had made clear that Russia would respond if Western countries continued taking steps that endangered Kaliningrad. Gasic stressed that he takes those warnings seriously.

He compared the situation to a hypothetical scenario in which Canada threatened essential supplies to Alaska, arguing that the United States would not tolerate such actions without responding.

Gasic also highlighted Kaliningrad’s strategic importance to Russia, particularly its ice-free port and its role in maintaining a Russian military presence in the Baltic region.

He described the exclave as an important defensive position against potential NATO attempts to restrict Russia’s strategic capabilities.

In Gasic’s assessment, Western governments are deliberately testing Moscow’s reaction by increasing pressure on Kaliningrad. He drew parallels between these developments and the tensions preceding the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.