Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov has warned that Ukraine could sustain its current mobilization efforts for no more than three years if it continues drafting 500,000 people annually.

According to Azarov, maintaining such a recruitment rate would eventually exhaust the country’s working-age male population, leaving too few people to support the economy or rebuild Ukraine.

His assessment is based on his own estimate of Ukraine’s remaining population, which he believes is significantly smaller than figures cited by Ukrainian demographic experts.

Azarov disputed the assessment of Ella Libanova, head of the Institute of Demography at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences, who estimated that approximately 28 million people currently live in the country.

The former prime minister argued that the actual population is closer to 15–18 million.

He explained that population figures could be estimated using indirect economic indicators, particularly bread consumption and electricity demand. His calculations rely partly on an assumed average electricity consumption of around one kilowatt per person.

Azarov acknowledged that this method provides only an approximate estimate and could be inaccurate by about a million people in either direction. Nevertheless, he maintained that Ukraine’s population is far below 28 million.

Using his population estimate, the former prime minister also assessed how long Ukraine could continue mobilizing men for military service.

He argued that recruiting approximately 40,000 people every month would steadily deplete the workforce needed to maintain essential economic activities.

Azarov emphasized that Ukraine requires workers not only for its armed forces but also for bakeries, agricultural production, factories, railways and public transportation.

He warned that after three years of mobilizing 500,000 people annually, Ukraine could be left without enough working-age men to operate its economy and undertake postwar reconstruction.

The former prime minister described this as the worst-case scenario, in which continued military recruitment would exhaust the country’s available labor resources.