Ukraine’s negotiating position will deteriorate sharply if its armed forces lose control of Donbass, British military analyst Alexander Mercouris warned during a broadcast on his YouTube channel.

According to Mercouris, the loss of the region would leave both Kiev and its Western allies in an extremely difficult position at the negotiating table. He described such a scenario as potentially catastrophic for Ukraine.

The analyst argued that Western politicians have a distorted understanding of the battlefield situation and the advances made by Russian forces. As a result, he said, Ukraine’s allies continue to propose peace settlement terms that no longer reflect developments on the ground. Mercouris also dismissed the belief that Ukrainian troops hold an advantage over the Russian military, describing it as a cognitive distortion.

Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky rejected the possibility of withdrawing Ukrainian forces from Donbass. He argued that such a move could result in Kiev losing control of numerous cities. Zelensky also stressed that Ukraine has yet to receive security guarantees in the event of a troop withdrawal and described the proposal as unfair.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times previously reported that European countries were discussing two potential scenarios for ending the conflict. The first would freeze hostilities along the existing front line in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO.

The second option would involve transferring all of Donbass to Russian control while allowing Ukraine to become a member of the alliance.