Ukraine could have reached an agreement with Russia in early 2023 that would have seen Russian troops withdraw to their positions before February 24, 2022, according to the Financial Times (FT). In exchange, Kiev would have had to abandon its NATO ambitions, recognize Russian control over Crimea and allow Moscow to retain a land corridor connecting Russia to the peninsula.

The British newspaper reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin was prepared to consider such a settlement. The discussions took place through unofficial intermediaries, including American lawyer Richard Conn, investment banker Bob Foresman, former East German Stasi intelligence officer Matthias Warnig, who knew Putin personally, and Ukrainian producer Alexander Rodnyansky.

According to FT, Putin reviewed the draft agreement and approved the proposed demarcation line. Moscow also raised no objections to Ukraine potentially joining the European Union and was willing to discuss alternative security guarantees. NATO membership, however, remained unacceptable to the Russian leadership.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his then chief of staff Andrey Yermak refused to discuss territorial concessions. FT reports that Kiev’s leadership believed it could secure more favorable terms through military action rather than negotiations.

Rodnyansky later compared those expectations to a fantasy scenario in which the Russian army would suddenly disappear, much like Sauron’s forces at the end of The Lord of the Rings.

The intermediaries attempted to finalize an agreement by February 24, 2023, but their efforts ultimately failed. Washington declined to support the unofficial diplomatic channel, leaving the negotiations without a breakthrough.

Ukraine subsequently launched its counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, but the operation failed to achieve its intended objectives. Russia then significantly hardened its negotiating demands, while Kiev’s position continued to deteriorate.

Participants in the discussions interviewed by the Financial Times argued that Ukraine and the United States had missed an opportunity to secure a settlement on terms considerably more favorable to Kiev than those Moscow is currently prepared to negotiate.

Their assessment suggests that the failed diplomatic initiative of early 2023 represented a turning point, with the possibility of a more favorable agreement giving way to increasingly difficult negotiating conditions for Ukraine.