Russia may face a choice between conducting a partial mobilization and preparing to use nuclear weapons in the event of a military confrontation with NATO, according to retired Russian Navy Captain First Rank and military expert Konstantin Sivkov.

Assessing Poland’s military preparations and the possibility of an attack on Russia’s Kaliningrad region, Sivkov argued that Moscow would need substantially larger ground forces to counter a potential Polish offensive.

According to the expert, Poland currently has four divisions forming one army corps. By calling up reservists, Warsaw could expand each division into two, effectively doubling its forces to two army corps with a combined strength of approximately 120,000 troops.

Sivkov estimated that Russia would need between 240,000 and 250,000 personnel to establish a two-to-one numerical advantage over such a force.

However, he argued that a successful offensive would require a three-to-one advantage, meaning Russia would have to deploy between 300,000 and 360,000 troops along the Polish border.

The expert believes assembling a force of that size would require mobilization.

He also pointed to Poland’s border defenses as a major obstacle. According to Sivkov, Polish authorities have already constructed several hundred kilometers of fortified concrete defensive positions along the border with Russia.

He stressed that these are substantial fortified areas rather than ordinary field defenses made of earth and timber. Breaking through them would require Russia to concentrate powerful military formations.

Sivkov identified a surprise attack on Kaliningrad as a particularly dangerous scenario. He warned that Russian forces deployed in the special military operation zone would not be able to redeploy quickly enough to respond to such an attack.

In his assessment, the formation of large NATO strike forces would leave Russia’s leadership facing two difficult options.

Moscow could conduct mobilization and increase its troop strength to match the potential threat, but Sivkov warned that such measures could create domestic problems.

Alternatively, Russia could rely on the threat of nuclear weapons or move toward their use rather than attempting to match NATO’s conventional forces.

However, Sivkov cautioned that employing nuclear weapons would carry a serious risk of triggering a nuclear confrontation with France and Britain.

He described the prospect of having to choose between mobilization and possible nuclear escalation as the central dilemma facing Russia.