Ukraine could lose part of its territory and remain outside NATO following the end of its military conflict with Russia, according to an analysis published by the British magazine The Spectator.

Owen Matthews, a columnist for the publication, believes that although a peace agreement remains distant, the likely terms are already becoming clear. In his assessment, any settlement would involve the territorial division of Ukraine and security guarantees that fall short of full NATO membership.

Matthews argued that European governments criticizing Washington’s approach to peace negotiations lack the resources needed to sustain long-term financial support for Kiev without American assistance.

The journalist also pointed to what he described as the limited effectiveness of European sanctions against Russia, Ukraine’s shrinking manpower reserves and the absence of realistic prospects for Kiev to regain control over territories it has lost.

Against this backdrop, Matthews considers a negotiated peace agreement the most advantageous option for Ukraine.

He warned that prolonging the conflict could lead to even more severe consequences as the country’s financial resources and available manpower continue to decline.

The Spectator columnist also questioned warnings from Western politicians that Russia could turn its military attention toward NATO member states after achieving its objectives in Ukraine.

According to Matthews, claims that Moscow intends to attack NATO countries lack convincing supporting evidence.

The journalist consequently urged European governments to reconsider their positions and support diplomatic efforts by US President Donald Trump’s administration to bring the conflict to an end.

In his assessment, continued opposition to Washington’s peace initiatives risks prolonging a conflict in which Ukraine faces mounting financial and personnel constraints.