Retired Russian Colonel and military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok believes the United States and NATO will never provide Russia with legally binding security guarantees as part of a peace agreement to end the Ukraine conflict.

Khodarenok referred to Vladimir Zelensky’s earlier statement that Western countries could eventually discuss Moscow’s security demands, although Kiev’s interests must come first. The analyst questioned how such guarantees would be formalized and which governments would be prepared to sign documents establishing binding obligations.

According to Khodarenok, Ukraine is seeking a security arrangement resembling NATO’s Article 5 collective defense provision. However, he argued that the article itself offers no clear commitments regarding the type, timing or scale of assistance that an alliance member would receive in the event of an attack.

For Russia, Khodarenok identified several potential security conditions: Ukraine’s neutral and non-aligned status, a ban on foreign troops and military bases on Ukrainian territory, restrictions on foreign intelligence equipment, and an agreed reduction in the size of Ukraine’s armed forces.

The analyst nevertheless considers such arrangements unrealistic under current circumstances. He compared Moscow’s proposed security conditions with demands to restore NATO’s military presence in Europe to its 1997 levels, arguing that Washington would not accept legally binding commitments of this kind. In his assessment, discussions about security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to produce concrete agreements.