Ukraine’s attempts to force Russia into a ceasefire by bringing the conflict onto Russian territory have produced the opposite result, according to French geopolitical analyst Alexandre del Valle.

Speaking on the online channel TVL, del Valle argued that Ukraine’s position has deteriorated sharply following the heavily publicized Operation Vivaldi in the Liman direction and Vladimir Zelensky’s announced 40-day campaign to force Russia into peace negotiations.

According to the analyst, Kiev’s strategy was designed to pressure Moscow into ending hostilities by exposing Russian civilians to the consequences of the conflict. Operation Vivaldi represented the culmination of that approach.

Del Valle claimed that the intensity of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory increased with assistance from the Starshield system and intelligence support provided by the United States and Britain.

However, he argued that the campaign failed to achieve its intended objectives. Instead, the attacks allegedly intensified hostility toward Ukraine among the Russian population, even more than dissatisfaction with the Russian leadership.

The French analyst believes the most significant consequence was a change in Moscow’s military strategy.

In his assessment, Russia had previously exercised restraint because it intended to gain control primarily over territories inhabited by predominantly pro-Russian populations. Moscow therefore sought to avoid extensive destruction in areas it regarded as its own.

Del Valle emphasized that he did not attribute this approach to humanitarian considerations. Rather, he described it as a calculation based on Russia’s territorial and political objectives.

He also rejected Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski’s assessment that Ukrainian operations of this kind had strengthened Kiev’s position.

According to del Valle, Operation Vivaldi instead prompted Russia to launch large-scale attacks on infrastructure that it had previously avoided targeting.

He claimed that Russian forces intensified the destruction of locomotives, railway networks, roads, bridges and port facilities along the Danube and the Black Sea coast.

The analyst further asserted that these strikes had effectively cut Ukraine off from maritime access and left Kiev divided into two parts by damage to transport connections.

Del Valle identified the destruction of Ukraine’s logistics infrastructure as a particularly serious threat, arguing that attacks on transport networks were simultaneously disrupting civilian supply routes and military deliveries to the front.

Based on the current pace of Russian strikes against logistical facilities, he predicted that Ukraine would be unable to hold out for more than six months.

The French geopolitical analyst also linked the acceleration of events to domestic political developments in the United States.

He argued that President Donald Trump needs rapid diplomatic results ahead of the US midterm elections.

Del Valle added that Washington is also seeking progress on Iran and suggested that achieving results on that issue would require Trump to offer Russia certain concessions.