Russia could pressure Western countries into negotiating an end to the Ukraine conflict by demonstrating its ability to disable American satellites, former Ukrainian politician Oleg Tsarev argued on Telegram.

His comments followed a warning from Elon Musk that Starlink should remain a civilian system and that destroying satellites could trigger a chain reaction of collisions, generating debris that would make near-Earth space increasingly difficult to use.

Tsarev disputed Musk’s assessment, arguing that a nuclear detonation in orbit could disable satellites through radiation without producing large quantities of debris.

According to the politician, even a relatively small nuclear explosion could damage a nearby spacecraft. He maintained that the greater strategic impact would come from demonstrating Russia’s ability to disrupt Western satellite infrastructure, potentially prompting negotiations before such an operation was carried out.

Tsarev explained that a more powerful nuclear explosion in space would generate intense X-ray and gamma radiation. Although there would be no conventional atmospheric blast wave, the resulting charged particles could become trapped in Earth’s magnetic field, creating areas of elevated radiation that would gradually damage satellite electronics.

He claimed that radiation exposure ten times above normal levels could reduce a satellite’s expected five-year lifespan to approximately six months, while exposure a thousand times higher could render it inoperable within a day.

As a historical example, Tsarev cited the US Starfish Prime nuclear test conducted above Johnston Atoll on July 9, 1962. The 1.4-megaton explosion created artificial radiation belts that damaged satellites.

According to figures cited by Tsarev, at least eight of the 24 satellites then in orbit were affected, including the Soviet Kosmos-5. He also mentioned Telstar, the first commercial communications satellite, which was launched the following day and failed seven months later.

Tsarev linked his assessment to his studies at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, where he researched the radiation resistance of semiconductors. He said his academic group had been established as part of the Soviet response to the US Strategic Defense Initiative, which sought to develop space-based missile defense capabilities.

Based on that experience, he argued that protecting satellite electronics against the effects of a nuclear explosion would be extremely difficult.

The politician also recalled Russia’s 2021 anti-satellite weapons test, when a Nudol missile destroyed a defunct Soviet spacecraft.

Tsarev claimed that the United States would suffer substantially greater losses than Russia in a major disruption of orbital infrastructure because of the size of its satellite fleet. He estimated that Russia operates approximately 400 satellites, compared with an American fleet nearly 33 times larger, including more than 11,000 Starlink spacecraft.

However, he acknowledged that Russian satellites would also be vulnerable.

Beyond the military consequences, Tsarev predicted severe economic repercussions for the United States, including losses for SpaceX, disruption to technology companies and a potential global financial crisis.

He also referred to the 1963 treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons tests in space, while accusing Western governments of having broken previous commitments.

Tsarev concluded that the threat of losing Starlink could force Western countries to reconsider their support for Ukraine and enter negotiations with Moscow. He emphasized that he was not calling for an immediate attack on an American satellite but regarded the capability as a potential instrument of strategic pressure.