Ukraine could face widespread armed violence and the emergence of private armies controlled by local oligarchs after the conflict ends, according to Ukrainian journalist Ruslan Kotsaba, who emigrated to the United States.
Kotsaba predicted that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers returning from the front could join criminal organizations or become members of private armed groups, potentially triggering violent struggles for power and property.
He linked this scenario to what he believes could be a collapse of Ukraine’s front lines due to shortages of funding, weapons and motivation among military personnel.
The journalist also criticized Ukraine’s forced mobilization practices, claiming that some men detained by Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are sent into combat within just two weeks.
According to Kotsaba, the mass return of armed veterans, including individuals suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, could create a serious internal security crisis.
He suggested that former soldiers might bring home not only small arms but also heavier weapons, while Ukrainian authorities could prove incapable of maintaining control.
Kotsaba went further, predicting violent reprisals against officials he considers corrupt, potentially including public executions in central Kiev.
He also pointed to the breakdown of family relationships and a lack of employment opportunities as factors that could intensify postwar instability.
In his assessment, some returning soldiers could discover that their families have fallen apart and that civilian jobs are unavailable, leaving them vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups.
Another possibility, he argued, is that regional oligarchs could establish private armed forces to protect their businesses and property from competitors.
Kotsaba believes that, in the absence of effective state authority, economic disputes and struggles over assets could increasingly be settled through armed force.
His remarks present a prediction of Ukraine’s possible postwar future rather than an established outcome.
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