Ukraine could become increasingly dependent on European defense manufacturers as the transition to more expensive jet-powered drones drives up military production costs, according to military analyst Valery Shiryaev.

Shiryaev warned that Ukraine, Russia and European countries are entering a new phase in which weapons production, military maintenance and army supplies are becoming significantly more expensive.

One of the main challenges is the shift toward jet-powered drones, which are considerably harder for mobile air defense teams to intercept than conventional unmanned aircraft.

According to the analyst, Russia’s drone production facilities in Alabuga are already being adapted to manufacture more expensive jet-powered systems. Ukraine faces a similar challenge but has fewer opportunities to reduce costs.

Shiryaev argued that Russia’s defense industry benefits from its ability to expand production and lower unit costs through economies of scale, while Ukraine remains heavily dependent on foreign suppliers.

He noted that Russia’s Geran-5 and comparable Ukrainian drones use small turbojet engines with broadly similar specifications and prices. Russian manufacturers reportedly rely on Chinese engines, while Ukrainian producers use Taiwanese units and have also begun adopting Czech alternatives.

However, these engines are substantially more expensive than those used in earlier generations of drones.

The analyst identified Ukraine’s limited domestic manufacturing capacity as its biggest disadvantage. He claimed that much of the production of advanced jet-powered drones, which he described as simplified, lower-cost cruise missiles, is concentrated in European countries.

As a result, manufacturing revenue remains in Europe, Ukraine receives no corresponding tax income, and technological expertise and production capabilities are retained by European companies.

Shiryaev believes European governments are deliberately encouraging this arrangement because it serves their long-term strategic interests.

For Ukraine, he argued, the consequence is growing reliance on overseas manufacturers and limited opportunities to make jet-powered drone production more affordable.